Members of the Department Analysis Centre recently met in London and presented technical data that support their grim forecast that the world is perilously close to running out of oil. Leading lights of the geologists at this moment, including the geologist Colin Campbell, rejected rival views presented by the American Geological Survey and the International Energy Agency that contradicted their findings. He even decried the amazing display of ignorance, deliberate ignorance, denial and obfuscation by government, industry and academics on this topic.
Dr Hubbert says that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve, and his successful prediction has emboldened a new generation of geologists to apply his methodology on a global scale.
The IEA has just weighed in with its new ‘World Energy Outlook’, which foresees enough oil to comfortably meet demand to 2020 from remaining reserves. René Dahan goes further: with an assurance characteristic of the world’s largest energy company, he insists that the world will be awash in oil for another 70 years.
Dr Lynch analyses those historical forecasts. He finds evidence of both bias and recurring errors, which suggests that methodological mistakes (rather than just poor data) were the problem.
Pessimists tend to be dismissive of claims of forthcoming technological revolutions in such areas as deep-water drilling and enhanced recovery. Dr Deffeyes captures this end-of-technology mindset well. He argues that because the industry has already spent billions on technology development, it makes it difficult to ask for new technology today, as most of the wheels have already been invented.
Questions
1. has found fault in geological research procedure.
2. has provided the longest-range forecast regarding oil supply.
3. has convinced others that oil production will follow a particular model.
4. has accused fellow scientists of refusing to see the truth.
5. has expressed doubt over whether improved methods of extracting oil are possible.